Four Years of Job Gains Erased in Two Years

July 17, 2009

Two years of job losses have wiped out all the jobs California gained during the four-year economic expansion earlier this decade. Data released today by the Employment Development Department show that California lost another 66,500 jobs in June, bringing total job losses since July 2007 to 917,400. This number exceeds the total number of jobs the state gained during the boom years between July 2003 and July 2007 (846,600). In fact, national data show this is the only recession since the Great Depression that has eliminated all the job growth from the previous boom – a reflection of the severity of the current recession, as well as the fact that it followed on the heels of one of the weakest expansions on record.

Other data released today show that California’s unemployment rate held steady in June at its record-high level of 11.6 percent, but not because workers stopped losing their jobs. Although the official number of unemployed Californians dropped by 7,000 between May and June, the number of employed also fell – by 40,000. This suggests that fewer individuals were counted as unemployed in June not because they found jobs, but because they gave up their search for work. Official unemployment statistics count individuals as unemployed only if they have looked for work within the prior four weeks. Once individuals go longer than four weeks without looking for work, they “drop out” of the official tally of unemployed, even if they still want a job and are available to work. As we’ve blogged about in the past, thousands of jobless Californians are not officially considered unemployed because they haven’t recently searched for work.

The state’s labor market has been weak for long enough now that it has likely started to affect workers’ earnings. Watch for further CBP analyses next month when we’ll delve into the latest wage data to assess how the downturn is affecting Californians across the earnings distribution.

– Alissa Anderson

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Oprah and Suze Orman: How the Federal Economic Recovery Plan Can Help You

July 16, 2009

Flipping channels last night, I came across another segment of The Oprah Winfrey Show featuring frequent guest and personal financial guru Suze Orman. But there was something about the rhetoric of last night’s show that made me pause. Instead of Orman castigating families who had wracked up unnecessary credit card debt, as she so often does, the show featured families who were facing financial difficulty through no apparent fault of their own: lost jobs, lost retirement savings, illness. Yes, Orman pulled out some of the individualistic rhetoric that’s so endemic to American culture: “There’s only one person that’s going to save you right now, and that’s yourself,” she said. But she also devoted a portion of the show to outlining parts of the federal economic recovery plan that can help struggling families, including subsidized COBRA health insurance coverage, increased unemployment insurance benefits, and tax credits for first-time homebuyers.

Maybe the message is finally hitting mainstream culture: We are all in this together, and, particularly in times of economic crisis, government can provide a steadying hand.

–  Lisa Gardiner

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First 5 Resolves To Help the Healthy Families Program

July 15, 2009

Meeting in Sacramento this afternoon, the First 5 California Children and Families Commission agreed to help the Healthy Families Program, which faces a $90 million General Fund shortfall in 2009-10. But the Commission declined to commit to a specific level of financial assistance. As a result, it appears all but certain that the enrollment freeze approved last month by the Managed Risk Medical Insurance Board, which oversees Healthy Families, will take effect on Friday, July 17.

In a resolution, the First 5 Commission committed “to join with like-minded public and private partners, including but not limited to health plans and philanthropic organizations, to provide financial assistance in Fiscal Year 2009-10 to the extent practicable and feasible…to ensure young children have access to affordable health insurance coverage.” This commitment, however, “is contingent upon the availability of funds in the applicable First 5 California accounts.”

Children’s health advocates urged the Commission to commit to a specific dollar figure in the hope that doing so would help delay implementation of the Healthy Families enrollment freeze. “Everyone is waiting for someone else to make the first move,” one advocate said. Commissioners, however, were reluctant to commit to a specific level of support given the ongoing state budget negotiations and other uncertainties. Commission staff suggested that the Commission could revisit the issue soon after a budget deal is struck and the magnitude of any General Fund cut to Healthy Families is known.

– Scott Graves

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Will First 5 Ride to the Rescue Again?

July 14, 2009

As we reported last month, the state will freeze enrollment in the Healthy Families Program starting on Friday, July 17, to help address a projected $90 million General Fund shortfall. In response, the First 5 California Children and Families Commission, which meets in Sacramento tomorrow, will consider whether to at least partly plug this funding gap by shifting First 5 tobacco tax revenues to Healthy Families. This would not be the first time that First 5 has come to the rescue: Last December, First 5 provided nearly $17 million in tobacco tax dollars to offset a prior General Fund shortfall in Healthy Families, which allowed the state to avoid freezing enrollment for the remainder of the 2008-09 fiscal year.

– Scott Graves

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Shifting Taxes Onto Low- and Middle-Income Californians

July 14, 2009

The Commission on the 21st Century Economy – the “tax commission” – will meet in San Francisco this Thursday to continue considering options for restructuring the state’s tax system. Last month, we blogged about how the proposals under consideration would reduce the share of taxes paid by the wealthy and increase the share paid by low- and middle-income Californians. A new analysis by commission staff provides further evidence that these proposals would increase the amount of taxes paid by California’s low- and middle-income working families. The preliminary analysis shows that 5.5 million individuals and families who currently have no personal income tax liability would owe taxes under the first proposal and 4.9 million would owe taxes under the second proposal.

Which Californians currently do not owe personal income taxes? The most recent Franchise Tax Board data show that in 2005, 5.5 million of the 14.1 million individuals and families who filed personal income tax returns did not owe taxes. Of these, 95 percent had incomes under $50,000. Therefore, it seems safe to assume that the overwhelming majority of the Californians who would start to owe personal income taxes under the commission’s proposals are those with incomes at the middle and low end of the distribution. And keep in mind that even though a large number of low- and middle-income Californians do not currently owe income taxes, they still end up paying a disproportionate share of their incomes in taxes when you factor in all state and local taxes.

– Alissa Anderson

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