The Big Countdown

April 20, 2009

With the next budget crisis looming on the horizon, regardless of the outcome of the May election, budgeteers are anxiously turning their attention to the daily cash count out at the Franchise Tax Board (FTB). FTB staffers are busily tearing open envelopes and counting cash to determine just how big the actual shortfall will be. Once the purview of Capitol insiders, the State Controller now posts the daily cash count, along with a comparison to the 2008 tax filing season, on his website. The Legislative Analyst ‘s Office (LAO) projects that revenues will fall short of the projections used for the February budget agreement by $8 billion. April tax collections will play a major role in determining whether the LAO’s estimates overshoot or undershoot the actual shortfall.

Heading into the all-important month of April, 2008-09 revenues collections were $737 million (1.3 percent) below estimates used for the February budget agreement.  Most – $647 million – of the shortfall was due to lower-than-anticipated sales tax collections. Corporate income tax collections also lagged projections, while personal income tax collections were right on target for the year-to-date. The weakness in revenue collections reflects the continued economic downturn, including rising unemployment, falling new home construction, and sagging retail sales.

– Jean Ross


California’s Unemployment Rate Hits Record High

April 17, 2009

Today’s Employment Development Department monthly data release is filled with bad news. California’s unemployment rate is now the highest since recordkeeping began in 1976: 11.2 percent, up six-tenths of a percentage point from the prior month. More than 62,000 jobs were lost between February and March. At the same time, 23,000 Californians joined the ranks of those who are either working or seeking employment. Thus, the number of people who want a job is growing while the number of jobs continues to decline.

Only two major sectors expanded between March 2008 and March 2009: educational and health services, which added nearly 40,000 jobs, and agriculture, which added 8,000. Construction continues to shrink, with 152,300 jobs vanishing in the last year. The trade, transportation, and utilities sector shed approximately 170,000 jobs over the year, the biggest loss of any major sector.

One bright spot in this depressing labor market story is that the state is now pulling down federal economic recovery funds to provide 20 additional weeks of unemployment insurance benefits to laid-off workers and to make it easier for many workers to qualify for benefits.

– Vicky Lovell


Taxes Are What We Pay for a Civilized Society

April 15, 2009

Taxes are what we pay for a civilized society — Former Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes

Taxes are the collective price we pay for public goods and services. State and local taxes support our public schools, streets and highways, public hospitals that form the backbone of the state’s trauma care system, parks and beaches, the public health infrastructure that ensures that our food is safe to eat and our water is safe to drink (and that delivers water to homes across California), as well as a range of other services. While the primary purpose of a tax system is to raise the money needed to support public services, tax policy can also serve as an end in itself, providing incentives for taxpayers to engage in desired activities or providing cash assistance to certain individuals.

April 15 – the deadline for filing income tax returns – is a day when Americans, and particularly the media, reflect on what we pay and, hopefully, what we get in return for tax dollars. Unfortunately, a lot of that reflection is informed by misinformation, distorted information, and urban legends that just plain aren’t true.  We’ve blogged on this before, but in honor of “tax day,” here’s a run down of the facts:

  • Low-, not high-, income Californians pay the largest share of their income in state and local taxes. Here’s an updated analysis of data we’ve blogged about before that takes into account the temporary tax increase included as part of the February budget agreement.
  • California is a moderate, not high, tax state when all state and local taxes and fees are taken into account.  This results from the fact that California has moderately high state taxes, but low local property taxes due to the impact of Proposition 13 on local property tax collections.
  • High-income Californians aren’t leaving the state due to higher taxes. In fact, the number of millionaire taxpayers is growing at a rate that far exceeds the increase in the number of personal income taxpayers as a whole.
  • Over the past 15 years, lawmakers have enacted tax cuts that will cost the state nearly $12 billion in 2008-09. That’s a larger loss than the $11.0 billion 2009-10 temporary increase in state tax revenues included in the February budget agreement.
  • Moreover, while the tax increases included in the budget are all temporary, regardless of the outcome of the May election, the September 2008 and February 2009 budget agreements included massive corporate tax cuts that are permanent and that will reduce state revenues by approximately $2.5 billion per year when fully implemented.

And finally, our friends at the Oregon Center for Public Policy (OCPP) offer an interesting history lesson for the organizers of the tax day “tea parties” around the country. The OCPP notes that, “Misunderstood by many, the real Boston Tea Party of 1773 was a protest not against taxation but against a tax cut for a multinational corporation of the day…The Boston Tea Party, in which American colonists dumped British tea into Boston Harbor, was an act of defiance against the Tea Act of 1773, which gave a tax break to the British East India Company. As noted by the Boston Tea Party Historical Society, the tax break was an effort by the British Crown to help the East India Company establish a tea monopoly in the American colonies.”

Don’t forget to file your taxes. And while you are at it, don’t forget to add the “use tax” you owe on your out-of-state Internet purchases!

– Jean Ross


Turning Down Federal Money

April 14, 2009

California is on the verge of turning down a significant chunk of federal economic recovery funds intended to help states pay for cash assistance for low-income families with children. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) establishes a temporary funding stream that will pay 80 percent – that’s right, 80 percent – of certain welfare-to-work program costs through September 2010. The idea is to provide states with funds that would help them avoid making draconian cuts to programs – such as California’s CalWORKs Program – that help families who are being hit hard by the current economic downturn.

Unfortunately, this extra federal money wasn’t enough to stop a 4 percent cut to CalWORKs grants from being included in the 2009-10 budget agreement. Starting July 1, this cut will reduce the maximum monthly grant for a family of three from the current $723 (an amount that hasn’t changed since 2004) to $694 – the same amount that families received 20 years ago. So, although the budget “scored” $147 million in General Fund savings from this grant cut in 2009-10, the savings really only amount to $29 million. The other 80 percent – $118 million – represents forgone federal funding.

The Legislature and Governor still have time to reverse the grant cuts. Let’s hope they all reflect on what the Governor said just last week: “Even before President Obama signed the Recovery Act, I pledged that I would act quickly to make sure California taps into every available dollar of federal funding and that we would put those dollars to work effectively.”

Sounds like a plan.

– Scott Graves


Who Pays?

April 8, 2009

A number of our blog posts have examined the impact of recent state tax changes and questioned whether “volatility” is a strength or a weakness of the state’s tax system.

The Commission on the 21st Century Economy, the latest in a long series of “blue ribbon” panels charged with studying the state’s tax system, will meet at UC Davis tomorrow. The Commission’s charge has focused on the issue of volatility, while largely ignoring issues of equity (the impact of tax policies by income group) and adequacy (whether the state’s tax system raises sufficient revenues to support public services.) To this end, the Commission’s deliberations have largely focused on shifting the balance of the state’s revenues from the personal income tax to consumption-based taxes, a shift that would significantly increase taxes paid by low- and middle-income Californians, while reducing those paid by the wealthy.

Citizens for Tax Justice Director Bob Intyre, a well-respected advocate for tax fairness, will testify at tomorrow’s hearing. McIntyre’s testimony documents who currently pays how much of what tax by income group in California, examines the relative growth rates for the state’s major revenues, and examines the distributional impact of reducing taxes on investment income and increasing taxes on consumption or personal income taxpayers more generally.  McIntyre concludes that “California’s progressive personal income tax is the fairest, best-working component of California’s tax system. It makes a major contribution toward offsetting the regressivity of California’s other major taxes, and because it is deductible on federal tax returns by better-off taxpayers, a substantial portion of the income tax burden is exported to non-Californians. The California income tax should be maintained.”

– Jean Ross


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